I'm not an alarmist. Or at least, I try not to be. Personally, I prefer a rather "Vulcan" approach to many things in security. As the youngsters say, "Logic rules everything around me." Actually, that may not be the "exact" wording but you get the drift. That said, I do have a fair amount of "Holy sh*t!" moments. While reading Rumiyah #3 (An English-language e-magazine for ISIL) and coming up on their murder-by-semi-truck tutorial, I tried to suppress having such a moment. I succeeded, mostly because I realize the tutorial was somewhat incomplete from a tactical perspective. That's not to say the message isn't effective or wouldn't possibly motivate ISIL members to strike. I see its inclusion as both for propaganda and potential triggering for an upcoming attack.
Oh, you read that whole "murder-by-semi-truck" bit correctly. Here's what they actually said - "Though being an essential part of modern life, very few actually comprehend the deadly and destructive capability of the motor vehicle and its capacity of reaping large numbers of casualties if used in a premeditated manner. This was superbly demonstrated in the attack launched by the brother Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel who, while traveling at the speed of approximately 90 kilometers per hour, plowed his 19-ton load-bearing truck into crowds celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, France, harvesting through his attack the slaughter of 86 Crusader citizens and injuring 434 more."
There's a lot we, as security professionals, can glean from this. Have no worries, I won't be divulging "state secrets" or imparting tactical clues. There are merely my observations. Take them for what they're worth, as your mileage could very well vary.
- Large vehicles are vogue for jihadis still. In fact, one of the key criteria they attribute for an "ideal vehicle is a "load-bearing truck". Even though, speed and "controllability" are also highly desirable, they suggest operators steer clear of SUV's and small cars. Obviously, they're looking for something that can handle a lot of weight.
- The Nice attack is seen as successful. Notice the vehicle should have "double-wheels" because it gives "victims less of a chance to escape being crushed by the vehicle's tires". Also, I noticed the inclusion of having a secondary weapon as a means of ensuring additional casualties and "increasing terror". Pretty telling.
- Crowd mitigation is really freaking important, stupid. Look, folks. I know I harp on this a lot. I get it. I do. But they pretty much say it - "In general, one should consider any outdoor attraction that draws large crowds." Notice the bit about crowds.
Image include in Rumiyah #3. Notice the large crowd. Just saying. - Attribution is really freaking important, stupid. The last few ISIL-related attacks (either by the group or attributed by them) have included language using the phrase "soldier of the Islamic State". Almost every attack committed by a Western-based attacker who hasn't gone to Syria, ISIL has claimed responsibility using this phrase. So no surprise here when you see it in Rumiyah #3 - "I am a soldier of the Islamic Sate!" Why do they do this? To sum it up - they're a holy anointed apocalyptic cult whose proximity to Allah can only determined by their ability to seemingly kill at will. If that's not clear enough, they do it for street cred. You gotta have bodies to make it in the terror game, folks.
- Large crowd size does not always equate to certain specific targets. Located in the fine print was this gem - "All so-called “civilian” (and low-security) parades and gatherings are fair game and more devastating to Crusader nations." If you're a security professional who has to mitigate threats to a parade route but you're not in New York, you may assume you're in the clear. Yeah, you're dead wrong about that. It's about the casualty count. If your parade route could have a large number of people along it with limited egress points and insecure access control to the street, you could be in the same boat, if not worse than New York. As I always say - it's not a matter of IF but WHEN. Mark my words. Be vigilant.
- It's not just about parades, stupid. What other "targets" are they looking at? Glad you asked. ISIL says "Outdoor markets, festivals, parades, political rallies (We got any of these coming up soon? Asking for a friend.), large outdoor conventions and celebrations (Got any tree-lighting ceremonies?), and pedestrian-congested streets (High/Main streets)" are all legit targets. Yep. Here comes your "Oh sh*t" moment. Stop it. Relax. Now, go mitigate.
- Fail to take this kind of attack seriously, at your peril. Let me put it bluntly. Nope, let me just leave what they said here - "The method of such an attack is that a vehicle is plunged at a high speed into a large congregation of kuffar, smashing their bodies with the vehicle’s strong outer frame, while advancing forward – crushing their heads, torsos, and limbs under the vehicle’s wheels and chassis – and leaving behind a trail of carnage."
