Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Five Things You Should Know About Christoper Dorner: Myth Busted


Folks, on Twitter, I have made no qualms about my feelings about Christopher Dorner. He is a murderer plain and simple. I won't be using this as a post to defend him or his actions. This post is mostly to talk about his mortality and the myths that surround him.

  1. Dorner was not an operator.  First, let's define "operator". An operator is anyone who is engaged in direct action covert operations. They come from the special operations and intelligence community.  They receive extensive training in things ranging from combat SCUBA to defensive driving, ordnance, small infantry tactics, covert infiltration, and high-altitude low opening (HALO). This training takes YEARS. And it takes even longer before some are considered operational. Many don't even get to go to schools right away before they go operational. Here's what we know about Dorner. He was an aviation school washout. What does that mean? The Navy tried for two years to make Dorner a pilot but couldn't for undisclosed reasons. These reasons could have been weight (he gained weight dramatically over the years), physical disability, ineptitude, or variety of dis-qualifiers  This compounds the myth further because the Navy spent a lot of money trying to train Dorner to be a pilot. So what happened next? They sent him to be a part of a riverine unit. This sounds pretty cool. Here's the problem. Dorner only stayed with that unit for 2 years before he was forced to move on. You will notice a pattern when examining his record. He has a history of bouncing from military unit to military unit.  Most likely, when you see such movements and not rapid promotions or earned recognition, it is indicative of someone who couldn't quite fit in. By the time he finished his deployment in Bahrain where he guarded an oil platform (a job Army cooks were doing for a while), his career in the Navy was nearing its end.  Dorner lacked any of the operational or training requirements to meet any criteria associated with being an operator.
  2. Dorner was a narcisssist. He used scary terms like "asymmetrical warfare" to bolster who he wanted people to think he was. In his manifesto, he was no longer Christopher Dorner, Navy and LAPD washout. No. He became a mythical persona. He was someone out of a Hollywood revenge movie. He became something he couldn't be in real life - special and unique. He believed LAPD had robbed him of that. Count how many times Dorner used the pronoun "I". It's quite extensive. Also notice how he never went to DoJ or any other entity. The slight wasn't against his victims. LAPD had done something far worse. They picked on Christopher Dorner.
  3. He was mortal. There are several signs we have of Dorner's mortality. Let's look at his failed escape attempts. An experienced operator plans his missions with meticulous detail. They don't miss anything. The one thing they never mess up is their extraction. Dorner messed up all of his extraction plans. After he robbed the old man at the marina of his boat, he forgets to secure the tow line. It, as we know, got caught in the propeller and the boat never left its dock. This is seamanship 101. How does a harbor cop like Dorner miss this? Because he's not a pro. He hadn't planned on everything to include his adrenaline overcoming his thinking. It happens to a lot of people in combat. This is why operators are heavily screened to judge how they operate under stressful conditions. Dorner's extraction from Big Bear failed as well. I'm not talking about the fire. I'm speaking of before that. Let's look at what went wrong there. He believes he can drive off-road skillfully which is evidenced in his manifesto. Again, he did not forecast poor weather conditions nor the amount of stress he would be under. So what does he do? He wrecks his transportation, breaks the axle, and is forced to set the truck on fire.

    He also didn't realize the Marshals were on to this extraction. They had marshals and Recon Marines conducting surveillance on his hideaway spot when they saw the fire. Sensing the impending arrival of law enforcement agencies and knowing the roads would soon be blocked, he tried to hold a couple hostage. This planned failed because they got away and told police who made contact and engaged Dorner. He was killed not by police but by the realization that for all his talk, he was just a washout.
  4. Dorner may have had access to information he shouldn't have had but that doesn't mean he had any of the tools or knowledge he claimed. I won't get into how or why or even if Dorner had access to undercover vehicle plates. Here's what I will tell you. Having those plates and recognizing them under stress in real time are totally different. Remember Dorner would have to be trained and skilled in vehicle counter-surveillance. This takes months of training to perfect. This training we know Dorner did not get in the Navy or with LAPD. His Navy time was spent with aviation training units and doing coastal security. I have experience in military law enforcement and security more extensive than Dorner while active duty and I was also in charge of requisitioning training for assets in my unit. No such training exists for anyone in any of Dorner's previous billets. Also, Dorner wouldn't have time to run down every suspicious vehicle following him.

    He also used terminology very familiar to military and law enforcement personnel and most people who have read a Vince Flynn novel. He claimed he had HUMINT (human intelligence or spies) when in fact, he was alluding to social engineering (calling schools and hospitals to obtain information he needed). He claimed he had IMINT (imagery intelligence). There is no way he had access to any discernible IMINT technologies. These require a very involved intelligence tasking and have considerable oversight. Additionally, satellites cost money. What he had was Google Earth and possibly some aerial photos that would be very dated. Having this information and using it are also completely different. He could plan escape routes but no way he could plan target mitigation with dated or unreliable data flawlessly. His signals intelligence came from scanners.

    He also had knowledge someone would expect of an LAPD officer so he knew basic tactics and procedures. What he could not have known  is that people he was matching wits with (those analysts he called out) are all experienced intelligence analysts and officers from various operational theaters. Studying threats is what they do for a living. When you get a second, look into where the people who work at fusion centers, JTTF, and VICAP come from. Talking and planning for them is kind of easy. Where it gets tough is whether your plan is superior to anything they've encountered previously. 
  5. Dorner also gave away a lot of information about himself in that manifesto. When you talk to the cops, you always give them more information than you should. Dorner gave them insight into his personality, his intellect, his methodologies, and what tools he could have. I've already talked about his personality and that his intellect was somewhat congruent with someone who is a college graduate. His methodologies and tools were expected. We knew he'd shoot it out with the cops because he said so and did it. His tools were also greatly exaggerated. There is no way he had access to MANPADS. He doesn't have the income or the resources needed to get something al Qaeda couldn't get into the US. Dorner gave an 11-page blueprint that spelled out his demise.
Whatever you think of Dorner, know this - he was very mortal. He made mistakes that no experienced person would have made. He lacked the background and tools to pull off what he claimed he could. Dorner was military-trained but flunked out of every single advanced training he was given. We panicked that he would find a plane but records indicated he had no pilot's license. He couldn't even get a boat out of port. He wrecked a truck and broke its axle because he didn't check the weather for ice and snow. He burned all of his weapons and camping gear which he would need to survive the massive manhunt on Big Bear. Allowing his hostages to escape caused the local cops to be on his trail and corner him in a cabin where he would burned before presumably shooting himself. I say all of this to debunk the myth surrounding this murderer and bring some illumination on the nature of the killer of four people.

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