So....the election is finally over!!! There's a lot to be said about the politics of this election and what that means for insert-the-name-of-your-special-interest-group. Have no worries - I'm not going there. In the vein of "staying in my lane", I'd like to discuss what the next four years will look like for those of us in security.
- Expect more protests. Seriously, nothing with respect to protesters and how they feel about a litany of political issues will change except they'll find more reasons to protest. There is little that can be done about it. Accept it. Monitor it. Hope to mitigate it. Move on.
- Expect ISIL to show up more. Given the aggressive nature of how the next administration plans to engage ISIL, there will inevitably be more attacks either from the group or its sympathizers and ad-hoc members aka lone wolves in retaliation. Expect more attacks against soft targets during periods of high crowd frequencies or surges like major U.S. holidays. Why? Simply put: ISIL and most jihadi organizations are holy anointed apocalyptic cults who are actively trying to bring on the apocalypse and any conflict with the "West" is objective towards that goal.
- Expect violence against minorities. The new administration has found its campaign rhetoric resonates with people who share ideologies that encourage violence against minorities. Not saying that message came directly from their campaign; just that the rhetoric resonates. How much more violence is unknown at this time. Seriously, it's been a few days since the election and while we've had a number of attacks reported, it's still much too early to see how far this develops as a long-term trend. That said, be very freaking vigilant.
- Cyber security could get really interesting really fast. There could be more cyber attacks against this administration and groups who contract with them. Also, we could also see counter-attacks from groups who sympathize with the administration. Has there been any indication of this happening? I haven't seen anything yet but we should know soon enough. If public outcry continues, then we can expect potential cyber attacks in response or in tandem.
- Border security could spawn a growth in physical security. The wall that is being discussed and presumably implemented will require an immense amount of physical security to augment surveillance and protect the wall. How many cameras and sensors will need to be installed? Who gets that contract? What about construction security? What about the wall itself? Lots of things to be hammered out but I expect some growth in the physical security sector if the wall comes to fruition.
- More stringent controls on immigration and background checks needed for visas. This was a central part of the campaign and cannot be ignored. I suspect the new administration will rely on the hearings that have been held in Congress previously on visas and travel documents, as a guide. My suspicion is that not much will change for those who immigrate from countries we already share travel document information with. Much stricter guidance will come about for countries which have a history of poor identification documentation controls and who have poor passport security.
- Police officers will continue to die in the line of duty. I mention this because there seems to be some mythology that exists which says tougher penalties on cop-killers means more deterrence. Time and time again, we've found that not to be the case. Yet, this is also a theme with the current administration. I do not argue that tougher sentencing is warranted for any murder; I do have issues when we infer a harsher penalty will bring a greater reduction than focusing on what drives the crime to begin with. Fix what drives people to kill and you will see long-term results in dramatically reducing the number of line-of-duty-deaths for cops.
- Crowd mitigation will become a bigger issue than is being discussed in the security industry. If you've heard me speak on this topic before, I apologize but this needs to be said. We're not doing enough to mitigate crowd surges which serve as target-rich environments for bad guys. Unless the new administration hires national security people who understand the importance of mitigating this issue, my fear is this will continue to be exploited in a significant way.
- Gun control and marijuana will continue to be big-ticket issues. Weed is legal in more states than before which means many of these states will be looking to Colorado and others to determine what should be their guidelines for security. I suggest if you live in a new weed state, brush up on this stuff. There's a big opportunity for growth.
Active shooters will continue to murder people. Fixing this in the short-term is never going to happen. Again, expect this trend to continue until we discuss what drives it. Thus, gun control will grow as a hot-button political issue. - Criminal justice reform is not going to happen. The new administration has stated one of its primary objectives is the restoration of the rule of law and has taken on a very pro-law enforcement stance. Expect little in the way of discussing reducing or eliminating mandatory sentencing. It could happen but not for the next two years.
